Swine flu is a real danger to children. But not a Dickensian one

David Spiegelhalter:

The death of an apparently healthy six-year-old child has helped to put swine flu back on the front pages. The Health Protection Agency says that 5 to 14-year-olds remain the group predominately affected by the illness -- 1 in 600 of them -- 1,500 a day -- went to their GPs with symptoms last week. The death of a child naturally provokes our shock and sympathy, and such events are now so rare that they are unfamiliar to most people. Statistically, 7 is the safest age to be in England and Wales -- there are 650,000 seven-year-olds and about 60 die each year. That's 1 in 10,000.

So what do young people die of, and what might swine flu do to those risks? The Office for National Statistics reports that of 6.3 million children aged between 5 and 14 in England and Wales, 721 died in 2007. The statistics rather coldly amalgamate 721 individual stories, each of which will be gone over endlessly by parents and others who were touched by their short lives.

We tend to hear about the 135 accidental deaths -- including 34 pedestrian fatalities, 18 killed on bicycles, 5 on motorbikes, 22 in cars, 2 in trains, 1 who fell from a tree, 8 drownings, 1 electrocution, 3 deaths in fires and 6 accidental poisonings. These events are so rare that it is unsurprising when they make local or even national news. We also hear about the 24 homicides in this age group -- about half of them committed by the child's parents -- though we hear less of the 16 suicides.

Posted by Jim Zellmer at July 19, 2009 1:01 AM
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