The Robots Are Here

Tyler Cowen:

saac Asimov, the astonishingly prolific science fiction writer, died in 1992, but he foresaw much about American politics today. One of his most profound works is the neglected short story "Franchise," written in 1955, in the days when computers were bulky, room-sized machines powered by vacuum tubes and operated by a high priesthood of punch card-wielding technicians. For a work of fiction, it is stunningly prescient.

In Asimov's tale, set in November 2008, democratic elections have become nearly obsolete. A mysterious supercomputer said to be "half a mile long and three stories high," named Multivac, absorbs most of the current information about economic and political conditions and estimates which candidate is going to win. The machine, however, can't quite do the job on its own, as there are some ineffable social influences it cannot measure and evaluate. So Multivac picks out one "representative" person from the electorate to ask about the country's mood (sample query: "What do you think of the price of eggs?"). The answers, when combined with the initial computer diagnosis, suffice to settle the election. No one actually needs to vote.

Asimov was on to something: American political campaigns have indeed become extraordinarily sophisticated data-mining operations driven by smart computers, harvesting and sifting through vast virtual warehouses of demographic information and consumer preferences to manipulate and shape the electorate. They may not do the voting for us, but this new generation of intelligent machines can do just about everything else. And when it comes to humans actually casting their ballots, well, we hardly are surprised by the results: Computer-powered data jocks such as Nate Silver can predict the outcomes of most races and often the margins of victory as well. We're not too far off from the world of Asimov's protagonist, an Indiana department-store clerk dragooned into being America's lone "voter." "From the way your brain and heart and hormones and sweat glands work, Multivac can judge exactly how intensely you feel about the matter," the machine operators tell him. "It will understand your feelings better than you yourself."

Posted by Jim Zellmer at November 17, 2013 12:50 AM
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