Childless Cities
A future with dwindling numbers of children is one many cities, including San Francisco, Seattle and Washington DC, are grappling with. In Hong Kong, for every adult over 65 there are, to put it crudely, 0.7 children, and in Tokyo it is even fewer (0.5).
Even before the pandemic, Joel Kotkin, author of The Human City wrote a decade ago about the prospect of a childless city, saying that US cities “have embarked on an experiment to rid our cities of children . . . The much-ballyhooed and self-celebrating ‘creative class’ — a demographic group that includes not only single professionals but also well-heeled childless couples, empty nesters, and college students — occupies much of the urban space once filled by families. Increasingly, our great American cities, from New York and Chicago to Los Angeles and Seattle, are evolving into playgrounds for the rich.”
Jon Tabbush, senior researcher for the Centre for London, a think-tank, worries about the capital becoming a “more segregated city, less culturally vibrant and, in the long run, a less productive city. High house and rent prices causing poor and middle-income residents to move outwards and leave the city would likely increase racial segregation, and damage the city’s shared culture that has made some of the most popular music, art and film of anywhere in the world.”
Childlessness, wrote the urbanist Richard Florida in 2019, “reflects how certain neighbourhoods come to specialise in certain kinds of residents by income and stage of life”. In London, children are spread unevenly, with families moving to the outer edges. Data from the Centre for London shows that in the 20 years to 2021, there was a decline in households with at least one dependent child in the inner London boroughs of Hackney (9 per cent), Islington (7 per cent), Lambeth (10 per cent) and Southwark (11 per cent). Further east, in Barking and Dagenham, there was a 34 per cent increase over the period, spurred by low land prices and an enormous programme of housebuilding.
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