Peter Arcidiacono, Karthik Muralidharan & John D. Singleton:

We leverage a unique two-stage experiment that randomized access to private school vouchers across markets as well as students to estimate the revealed preference value of school choice. To do this, we estimate several choice models on data only from control markets before turning to the treatment data for model validation. This exercise reveals that a model where school choice is constrained by ability-to-pay achieves better out-of-sample fit but still underpredicts experimental take-up of the voucher offer. We then present evidence from treatment markets that: a) the voucher offer also induced search; and b) private schools used program surplus to incentivize enrollment. Further, we show that a unified model incorporating these features can explain both the control and treatment data patterns. Estimates from that model imply that a targeted voucher program would have a marginal value of public funds (MVPF) of at least 3.

Commentary…

Sometimes, though, the public’s views aren’t all that clear.

That’s been the case in staunch Donald Trump territory with the movement to force religion, the Bible and the Ten Commandments into the public education system.

One would guess that in ultra-conservative states that gave Trump 20-to-30-point margins in the last election, requiring school kids to take Bible lessons would be a slam dunk. But Ryan Walters — Oklahoma’s Republican school chief who decreed a few weeks ago that all public schools in his state must incorporate Bible teachings in school curricula — is probably surprised.

His edict, after all, has spawned similar moves in other conservative states. Louisiana, for instance, is requiring its schools to display the Ten Commandments, and others are poised to follow suit.