Aaron Garth Smith and Jude Schwalbach

Today, between declining birth rates, fiscal chaos, and competition from charter and private schools, public education bears little resemblance to what it was before the pandemic. These challenges will deepen in the coming years, and widespread school closures and staff reductions are likely. But the most daunting task will be convincing parents to enroll their children in public schools.

The birth dearth.

Nationwide, public school enrollment has declined by 1.2 million students—about 2.3 percent—since 2020. Research suggests that 40 percent of these students switched to private schools or homeschooling as parents grew weary of prolonged school closures, masking policies, and curricular battles. But demographics also played a key role, with about one-quarter of it attributable to a declining number of school-aged kids thanks to the birth dearth.

The number of births in the U.S. dropped by 17 percent between 2007 and 2023. This means that 720,000 fewer births occurred in 2023 than in 2007. This baby bust also extends to U.S. immigrants. In 2019, immigrant fertility rates dropped below replacement levels for the first time.

Additionally, some states have experienced significant student attrition because of domestic migration between states. For instance, California and New York lost nearly 342,000 and 244,000 students, respectively, between fiscal years 2021 and 2022 due to outmigration, according to Bellwether.