Henry Farrell

The Biden administration, in its final days, has laid out an extraordinarily ambitious plan to use its chokepoint on high end semiconductors to control global AI. The best explanation I’ve seen is this Bloomberg scoop by Mackenzie Hawkins and Jenny Leonard, published a few days before the draft plan was published. The draft plan itself is available on the Federal Register (warning – there is a lot of export controls lawyerly jargon).

The idea is to use export controls to restrict the selling and use of to achieve two U.S. policy goals. The first is its desire to keep the most advanced AI out of the grasp of China, for fear that China will use strong AI to undermine U.S. security. The second is its desire to allow some degree of continued access to semiconductors and AI in most countries, to mitigate the anticipated shrieks of protest from big U.S. firms that don’t want to see their export markets disappear.

Hence, this highly complex plan involves controlling access to the advanced semiconductors that are used to train advanced AI models, as well as the model ‘weights’ themselves. The plan continues to very sharply restrict China’s and some other countries’ access to highly advanced semiconductors (what Hawkins and Leonard call Tier 3 countries – the actual terminology is more technical and abstruse). It allows a much more liberal regime of exports without much in the way of controls to a small group of ‘Tier 1’ countries – important allies and other friendlies such as Norway and Ireland. Finally, there is a large intermediary zone of other countries, including some traditional U.S. allies, that will be allowed access to U.S. semiconductors, but under complex restrictions. This loosely extends the regime that the U.S. is trying to make Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates comply with (in which they would agree to detach their data centers from Chinese technologies in exchange for semiconductor access) to the rest of the world. As Hawkins and Leonard describe it: