The model is the product
I think it’s time to call it: the model is the product.
All current factors in research and market development push in this direction.
- Generalist scaling is stalling. This was the whole message behind the release of GPT-4.5: capacities are growing linearly while compute costs are on a geometric curve. Even with all the efficiency gains in training and infrastructure of the past two years, OpenAI can’t deploy this giant model with a remotely affordable pricing.
- Opinionated training is working much better than expected. The combination of reinforcement learning and reasoning means that models are suddenly learning tasks. It’s not machine learning, it’s not base model either, it’s a secret third thing. It’s even tiny models getting suddenly scary good at math. It’s coding model no longer just generating code but managing an entire code base by themselves. It’s Claude playing Pokemon with very poor contextual information and no dedicated training.
- Inference cost are in free fall. The recent optimizations from DeepSeek means that all the available GPUs could cover a demand of 10k tokens per day from a frontier model for… the entire earth population. There is nowhere this level of demand. The economics of selling tokens does not work anymore for model providers: they have to move higher up in the value chain.
This is also an uncomfortable direction. All investors have been betting on the application layer. In the next stage of AI evolution, the application layer is likely to be the first to be automated and disrupted.
