The Case of the Boiling Frogs: Provincial Indifference to Declining Education Outcomes
Education, Skills and Labour Market
In terms of national scores in reading, mathematics, and science among sampled students at age 15, Canada continues to rank among the top ten countries in the 2022 PISA survey.At first glance, one might conclude all is well. However, Canada’s national trends have consistently declined since initial benchmarking of the three subjects in the early 2000s. The largest subject decline is in mathematics.
The four large-population provinces – Quebec in particular – have composite mathematics scores well above the OECD average. Five of six small-population provinces score statistically at the OECD average. Newfoundland scores below the OECD average.
Like the proverbial frogs slowly boiling in water, Canadian provinces are at risk of ignoring their problems until too late, as happened in Sweden a decade ago – and is currently taking place in many US states.The Council of Ministers of Education in Canada (CMEC) could facilitate a coordinated response among provinces to address weaknesses identified in PISA. For example, CMEC could promote superior Quebec mathematics practices. Another example: provinces could pay attention to BC’s superior high-school completion rate in provincial schools.
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