This enrollment calculation is poised to become the most significant narrative in education for the next decade

Tim Daly

  • Cities have fewer children than they did a generation ago. Eighty percent of metro areas are trending downward in terms of kids aged 0-14. In the three years immediately following the arrival of COVID, our three most populous regions – New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago – lost an astonishing 600,000 children. Rising costs for housing and child care, among other necessities, has made big cities unaffordablefor many families. So they raise their children elsewhere.
  • Birth rates are way down. Let’s use Chicago as an illustration. In 2000, it recorded 50,885 births to city residents. In 2024, there were only 27,627. This decrease of 45 percent is often overlooked because Chicago’s overall population dropped only 8 percent in that same time span.1 U.S. families are getting smaller everywhere. The average number of children born per woman dropped more in 13 years between 2007 and 2020 than it did in 37 years from 1970 to 2007. Think about the magnitude of that data point for a moment.

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Meanwhile Madison is adding bricks and mortar (and raising property taxes) amidst declining enrollment..


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